Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Posts Tagged ‘Polling’

Dear Readers: I wanted to share a few thoughts on the anniversary of the terrorist attacks of September 11th. There are many places that are memorializing that day, and perhaps none as well as Glenn Reynolds/Instapundit (click here for his continually updated item). Lonely Conservative also offers a great video tribute (click HERE).

On Sept. 11, 2001, I was 6-months pregnant with the Young Prince. A phone call from Horemheb’s coworker woke us, and we turned on television. Both my husband and I knew this was an attack, as we realized a second plane had it the World Trade Center. As was my habit, I went swimming in the morning just to keep life as normal as possible. One of the memories I carry with me is going to the pool, and listening to all my neighbors’ televisions (it was a warm day, and windows were open). They were all watching the unfolding horror.

My son has always lived in a country at war. One of the blessings I am grateful for is that our armed forces have managed to keep the enemy away from our cities since that time. It makes it possible for my son and I to share special moments, such as completing a 4-mike hike for his Cub Scout achievements — which confirms I have recovered from my hip injury courtesy of the blessings of our wonderful medical community.

One of the items Glenn Reynolds quoted was this:

And here’s a passage from Lee Harris’s Civilization And Its Enemies.

Forgetfulness occurs when those who have been long inured to civilized order can no longer remember a time in which they had to wonder whether their crops would grow to maturity without being stolen or their children sold into slavery by a victorious foe.

They forget that in time of danger, in the face of the Enemy, they must trust and confide in each other, or perish.They forget, in short, that there has ever been a category of human experience called the Enemy. And that, before 9/11, was what had happened to us. The very concept of the Enemy had been banished from our moral and political vocabulary. An enemy was just a friend we hadn’t done enough for — yet. Or perhaps there had been a misunderstanding, or an oversight on our part — something that we could correct. And this means that that our first task is that we must try to grasp what the concept of the Enemy really means.

The Enemy is someone who is willing to die in order to kill you. And while it is true that the Enemy always hates us.

Perspective is a very valuable thing when dealing with friend and foe, and using reason instead of fear is critical. Therefore, the rest of this post will highlight aspects of perspective and reason in actually promoting truly American concepts of smaller government and fiscal responsibility during this important period in history.

Professor Jacobson has been covering the defeatist attitude pervading the “right-o-sphere” since the weekend and ginned-up analytics showing an Obama bounce. Today, in light of a Washington Post poll, the professors says: U.S.A.! U.S.A.! …”>OMG, Romney’s back, SURGE, Comeback Kid, clutching victory from jaws of defeat, nothing to fear but fear itself, it ain’t over ’till it’s over, I can see U.S. hockey victory over Obama from my poll, U.S.A.! U.S.A.! …

Yes, the elite media was always going to promote an “Obama bounce”, even though the Democrat convention was full of fail (see HERE and HERE for the best fiskings of the event).

The polls are crap. Richard Murdock became the GOP Senatorial candidate by defeating Dick Lugar at 10 points better than the public polls indicated. Scott Walker crushed is Democratic opponent in numbers far higher than presented the public polls. There is a great discussion on why the polls are useless on a CANTO TALK episode with the Prairie Editor’s Barry Casselman (click here it listen) iHey, I have a poll, too:

ROMNEY IS PROJECTED TO LANDSLIDE OBAMA WITH 100% OF THE VOTE.

As far as I am concerned, mine is just as reasonable. The elite media is the enemy of the American people who want accurate news and information so they can make a fully informed choice.

The Ulsterman Report has a great look at polling internals that also make my point: WHITE HOUSE INSIDER: Ohio Now Turning To Romney – Polling Data 101

You see, that PP poll was taken from a +4 Democrat sample.  Right there the poll is hurting credibility wise.  But dig a little deeper.  That poll was also +9 for women sampled.  That’s a huge gap for Ohio.  +9 women polled over men?  Cross check that data.  You realize in Ohio women make up 51.2%  of the population.  This PP poll tries to alter that # so that it reflects women make up nearly 60% of Ohio population.  Which is way off and totally breaks apart the poll’s credibility.  Why would they do that?  Because Obama is polling better with women and Romney is polling better for men.  So cook the poll right off with a nearly 10 point advantage of women polled.  That alone would give Obama another 3-4% advantage in the final approval #s.  So you got a +4 Democrat sample.  And a heavily lopsided women sample that together accounts for about +8 favoring Barack Obama.  So compare that to the headline they used for the poll:

 

Obama up by 5 in Ohio.

In a polling sample that favored Barack Obama by nearly 10 points, the best he can do is a 5 point advantage.  Bluff called.  We send back a revised interpretation of the poll with a “Greetings from Ohio” postcard attached.

But there’s more bad news for Obama with this PPP data.  In the poll 5% of voters indicated they were still undecided.  Pretty big # this late in the game in a state that has been hammered by advertising and political appearances from both campaigns but especially the Obama team.  Those undecideds know Barack Obama.  If they liked him they would already be indicating plans to vote for him.  Campaign 101 is that the undecideds break AWAY from the incumbent and FOR the challenger by about 2 to 1.  So with that in mind, there’s another 2 or even 3 point advantage for Romney in Ohio with just the undecideds alone.

You want to know the headline Obama’s own internals are giving them in Ohio?  Want to know what the headline would read if it was published by a non-partisan slant?

Romney holds 3 point advantage in Ohio.

The media manipulations also impact student newspapers, as I discuss in College Insurrection. A professor who decided to be the talk of campus by nursing her infant in front of class was slated to be the focal point of a student newspaper report. She used all the classic liberal whines to try and get them to NOT run the story, including the claim of a “hostile work environment”. The story is here: No fluke – American U. Prof says has right to nurse child in front of class

It’s a piece I worked up, as those students pay a lot of money in tuition and deserve the instructor’s full attention and a distraction free environment. I hope the student newspaper runs the story, because the progressive assumptions and agenda-oriented classrooms deserves to be challenged.

I hope everyone who reads this today spend some time challenging opponents to our exceptionalism. With that in mind, here is today’s questions.

With that in mind, here is today’s question in anticipation of our “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” Americana-based show on Canto Talk this Thursday.

TRUE OF FALSE: The US Constitution is the second oldest and third shortest of any “major government in the world”. (Answer HERE).

Read Full Post »