The biggest point I wish to make is that though I was wrong — and a bill was passed — I will still be right at the end result. The Tea Party will be blamed when the credit-rating goes down and the quasi-depression continues. This bill did NOTHING to solve the core problems of big government strangulation of the free market and personal liberties. So, when the economy goes even further down the crapper, the “Tea Party Deal” will be blamed.
This is NOT a “Tea Party Win“.
Here is a savvy analysis for one of the Shrine’s dearest friends:
1. 43% of what we now spend is debt
2. Next year our budget goes up 8% (and the year after that 8% and ….)
3. Our GDP growth is now below 2% but is assumed by CBO to be 3% going forward; but we may actually have a double dip recession
4. The budget cut next year is a whopping $22B (about what we spend in 2 DAYS total)
5. The real purported cuts do not happen for 5 years
6. If the cuts are made—you can assess the probability–we will need to borrow only $7-8T and not $10T over 10 years
7. Our debt will go from 70% of GDP to 90% (see Japan) with no end in sight; would hit 1.4 in mid 20teens if growth is <2% (see Greece)
8. The lower/zero income folks fall deeper into the abyss
1. The chance that growth will exceed estimates: zero
2. The chance that tax revenue will be less than anticipated: 100%
3. The chance that we have underestimated the challenges of the global economy: 100%
4. The chance that of new risky adventures by foreign friends and foe: 100%
The MSM only talked about the "default", which was not going to happen, rather than the consequences from the above.
We will see if the new debt committee can do something about entitlements, tax reform, pork, union pensions, and regulations. You can estimate the odds. Meanwhile there is no discussion about education reform to meet the challenge of global competition in a high tech world, infrastructure for economic growth, and real energy independence.
Fellow SLOB, W.C. Varones, has a related take: Bill Gross: the debt deal is a complete fraud and the U.S. is still going to screw bondholders
* Nothing in the Congressional compromise reached over the weekend makes a significant dent in our $1.5 trillion deficit.
* In addition to an existing nearly $10 trillion of outstanding Treasury debt, the U.S. has a near unfathomable $66 trillion of future liabilities at “net present cost.”
* Aside from outright default, there are numerous ways a government can reduce its future liabilities. They include balancing the budget, unexpected inflation, currency depreciation and financial repression.
I was talking to my brother today. He and I both concur — we will never see a penny of Social Security or Medicare. We wish we didn’t have to pay into it — but are willing to do so to take care of our mom’s generation and not have such burdensome costs passed onto our children. We resent being lied to on all counts by both parties in Washington D.C.
Another SLOB, B-daddy, says this is merely a skirmish in the long war. Like my beloved husband Horemheb, B-daddy says Obama is tone deaf — especially in today’s call to raise taxes. I can only hope my fellow Americans have truly been paying attention to the real numbers and the true fiscal condition of this country, which has Russia’s Vladimir Putin calling us “parasites”.
As Tea Party Patriot’s Mark Meckler noted in a Der Spiegel piece: We have compromised our way into disaster.(MUT Note: This article is fabulous, and a must-read for anyone concerned about what is actually occurring in Washington DC).
Meckler: This debate is not about taxes. This is a question of spending. There is no amount of taxes that we could raise that would stop our deficit spending caused by politicians who have lied so often.
As (San Diego Tea Party group) SoCal Tax Revolt Coaltion’s Sarah Bond noted, the Ruling Class “Cry Wolf” tactics have led to some of the worst legislation America has ever passed: Stimulus and Obamacare. To rework a famous quote: Legislate in Haste, Repent at Leisure.
I am hoping that we Tea Party people and citizen activists give the “Ruling Class” elites who promulgated this atrocity plenty of leisure time in 2012.