Dear Readers: Today, I am doing the first MUT Over/Under Poll! I am going to post my predictions for the total outcome of the House of Representatives and Senate races on Nov. 2nd, trying to determine how large the Republican margin of victory will be. Then, I am going to post the projections for the other Slobs (San-Diego Local Order of Bloggers). A prize will go to the SLOB who comes closed to accuracy.
HillBuzz had a comment today, which I will use as the basis for my prognostication:
Instapundit always warns us Tea Party types: DON’T GET COCKY!However, there is a reason I am a Democrat! I have my fantasy, and will use emotional reasoning to get the outcome to be what I want it to be! 🙂 Therefore, I will use Dick Morris’ optimistic predictions as the basis for mine!
Thanks to the leadership of President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid, the Democratic Party is facing the biggest defeat in midterm elections in the past 110 years, perhaps surpassing the modern record of a 74-seat gain set in 1922. They will also lose control of the Senate.
Republicans are now leading in 54 Democratic House districts. In 19 more, the incumbent congressman is under 50 percent and his GOP challenger is within five points. That makes 73 seats where victory is within easy grasp for the Republican Party. The only reason the list is not longer is that there are 160 Democratic House districts that were considered so strongly blue that there is no recent polling available.
So, as 76 is a magic number for this country, that is the over number for the House races. Now, here is what Dick Morris has to say about the Senate:
Today, October 6th, is the first day this year that the Republican candidate leads in the most recent poll in ten Senate races for Democratic seats. If the Republicans hang onto these leads, they are assured of a majority!
Even more important, the Republican is moving up in all ten races even where the margin is still narrow!
Since the “Tea Party Ten” has a nice ring to it, I am going to go with 1O as the GOP pick-up in the Senate.
76 House GOP pickup.
10 Senate GOP pickup!
Check back for SLOB updates!
W.C. Varones Over/Under
Doo-Doo Economics/Charles Caesar
Beers with Demo
The Liberator Today
For bonus points, I predict that at least one Democrat in the House will change parties to Republican after the election, but no senators will, unlike ’94 when Sen. Richard Shelby of AL switched parties.
I don’t have numbers to contribute nationwide…but I do think 3 (at least) house 1 senate for California.
The reason I am doing this now is that there is still a lot of wiggle room in the polls, so waiting for dates closer to Nov. 2nd is less challenging. Also, absentee ballots are being cast. (It seems Babs Boxer voted yesterday and would not comment on how she voted on the Propositions— but I am pretty much certain she supported any that raised the level of taxation and regulation of Californians!).
On a more serious note, my beloved husband (Horemheb) wanted everyone to vote NO on Proposition J. The union that dictates to Young Prince’s school sent home some fear-mongering literature in with my son’s homework. My husband sent the School Board members some email underscoring his own version of BLOWBACK:
I think it’s a disgrace that the district is sending out the attached flyer which only provides one side of the debate and essentially tries to scare parents into voting for the measure. It’s also interesting that the flyer states none of the funds will be used for teacher salary increases when you’ve already paid off the unions with significant salary increases over the next few years. Thanks for the incentive to work even harder to defeat it.
Here are the email addresses to use:
By the way, here is a handy trick to figuring out how to vote for school-board members: The better the campaign literature/posters, the more likely the candidate is being backed and funded by the union. So, please dig deep for information before you vote. With that in mind, please check out The Liberator Today and Richard Rider for great in-depth reviews on local measures.
Today’s title comes from Walt Disney. I was questing for information on ’76 quotes, and came across this 76 Life Quotes. It seemed the most apt for my Over/Under Predictions.